Rising food prices around the world are negatively affecting the nutrition of the poor who are coping primarily by reducing the amount of meats, dairy, fruits, vegetables, and other non-staple foods that they eat. Minerals and vitamins are concentrated in these non-staple foods so any reduction in the already low amounts of these foods consumed by the poor will increase micronutrient malnutrition. Preschool children and women of reproductive age are generally more at risk from micronutrient deficiencies and will suffer the most from food price increases.

The example shown below from rural Bangladesh is typical of diets and food expenditure patterns for those who suffer from micronutrient malnutrition. This chart shows that staple foods, mostly rice, account for more than 80% of the caloric energy intake in rural Bangladesh. Non-staple plant foods and meat products account for less than 20% of energy intake, yet almost 60% of the food budget is spent on these more expensive, and more nutritious, foods.

Share of Energy Intakes in Rural Bangladesh

Share of Food Budget in Rural Bangladesh

Source: H. Bouis

Some factors to consider in analyzing the impact of rising food prices on food consumption include the following:

a. Poor consumers’ expenditures on non-staple foods make up 40-60% of their total food expenditure.

b. Demand for food staples (e.g. rice, wheat, maize) is highly inelastic. This means that people will continue to buy and maintain their consumption of food staples despite increases in price. People will protect and preserve their staple food consumption above other types of foods. Both income and price elasticities for food staples, in the aggregate, are low. This means that changes in income and/or price will also have little influence on demand.

c. Current intakes of vitamins and minerals are already too low, and even modest decreases in these intakes will have severe negative consequences on the nutritional status of the poor.

HarvestPlus estimates that a 50% increase in all food prices across the board (holding income constant) will result in a 30% decline in iron intakes. This, in turn, will result in an increase in the prevalence rate of iron deficiency among women and children of 25 percentage points (e.g. if currently the diets of women result in 60% consuming below the mean average iron requirement, then 85% will consume below the mean average iron requirement after the 50% price rise).